Boston Red Sox 2011 Season Preview by Christopher B.

What can be said about the BoSox that hasn’t been said already? We know what the winter was like, Theo (the best GM in baseball regardless of what Showalter thinks) made two huge splashes, one was done via trade the other through free agency. With these two simple moves our offense and defense was improved tremendously. Yet I believe too many fans don’t realize how these acquisitions really change our system. Yes they will impact our success this year, but the effect it has on 2012 and beyond is going over looked, that’s where I come in. I’m here to shed light on the ripple effect and why I believe the team to beat in the AL East (obviously us) will be even better in 2012. I also included a stunner of a scenario that if it were to happen we could have a championship run in Boston that would rival the Celtics 1957-1966 winning streak.

Key Additions:

Adrian Gonzalez (1b)- Acquired via trade with San Diego. He plays Gold Glove defense at first and gives us the power bat we’ve been seeking since Manny was shipped out of town. They say his swing is tailor made for Fenway and his power numbers project to increase now that he no longer has to deal with the cavernous Petco Park. This deal obviously impacts our future directly as we gave up the following prospects #1 Casey Kelly, #3 Anthony Rizzo, #6 Reymond Fuentes and player to be named later Eric Patterson. (*note the rankings are via Baseball America’s top 10 compiled prior to the deal). Gonzalez is supposed to sign a long term contract after the season begins some where in the range of 7 yrs and 148 million. It’s not easy to acquire a hitter with 40 home run power and Gonzalez very well could hit 50 this year. Lets hope the shoulder injury that sidelined him some last year is a thing of the past.

Carl Crawford (LF)- Acquired via free agency Crawford cost us 142 million over 7 years + our first rd pick to the Rays in this year’s coming draft. They say speed/power players age gracefully and while I don’t love the length of the deal to get a superior player for 16 mill more than what the Nats paid Werth is an absolute steal. He’s the best defensive left fielder in the sport, offensively he’s a game changer wreaking havoc on the base paths, stealing bags and turn

Andrew Miller (SP)- Miller was acquired through a trade with the Marlins sending relief pitcher Dustin Richardson to the fish. In a stunning turn of events Miller was then non tendered. Many casual fans do not understand why the Sox would trade for a player then not offer him a contract. Miller has spent time pitching in the majors since ’06 (the same year he was drafted #6 overall by the Tigers) he was out of options and would have to be exposed to waivers if the Sox tried to send him to the minor’s. Theo being the brilliant GM that he is knew Andrew would not pass through unclaimed and therefore released him, allowing him the opportunity to sign him to a minor league deal. Under his current contract Andrew does not take up a spot on the 40 man roster as he is being sent to the minors to work on mechanics and control. He’s still only 25 with a high ceiling and the Sox still see his long term future as a starting pitcher though his immediate impact this season might be as a reliever.

Alfredo Aceves (SP)- Alfredo was signed to a minor league contract after the Yankees released him. It wasn’t about performance but more about injury as their projected time table had him returning much later than expected. This is a signing that could work out in our favor big time. Aceves pitched to a 10-1 record in ’09 for the Yanks pitching mostly out of the pen while posting a 69-16 k to walk ratio. Aceves is being stretched out at Triple A and will be insurance should any of the starters suffer from injury (*crosses fingers*) or poor performance (cough cough Dice K).

Bobby Jenks (RP)- If it hadn’t been for the Crawford deal this would’ve been the most surprising signing. Jenks the former White Sox closer was jettisoned after posting his worst statistical season as a major leaguer. Injury, lack of focus, and obvious problems with the manager all could be to blame as you can’t really point the finger at either one. Immediately afte this deal rumblings were sent through the sport that Papelbon would be on the move, what further fueled these talks was the reported Sox pursuit of lengendary closer Mariano Rivera. What Jenks provides for us is depth and experience. Last year was Papelbon’s worst and while The Nation hopes that both these relievers return to form this year neither one can be truly counted on. Closer to be Daniel Bard is waiting in the wings and many expect he will take over the duties in 2012. Having Jenks in the pen allows Bard one more year to grow while providing us with the necessary depth we need. Besides our injuries last year we suffered many times late in the game due to our pen imploding. Lets hope that Robert Scott Jenks can help turn it around.

Signifcant Departures:

Adrian Beltre (3B)- Beltre’s fate was sealed with the addition of A-gonz. Obtaining Adrian meant our incumbent first baseman Kevin Youkliss would be shifted to third and while Adrian is superior defensively (he ranks as one of the greatest all time) his dedication is always in question. His most prolific offensive year’s have came in contract seasons and one has to wonder where his priority lays. Texas signed Beltre to a 5 year 80 million dollar deal with a 6th year 16 million option, a far cry from the 1 year 9 million dollar contract he signed with us last year. The deal also meant the Sox would be getting Texas’ first round pick evening out the loss of ours to Tampa.

Victor Martinez (C)- Many Sox fans were sad to see Victor go, I was not one of them. I don’t believe he’s worth the contract given to him by Detroit, as a dh he’s merely average as a catcher his offensive skills are well above. He doesn’t have the best skills at handling a pitching staff and teams love to run on him, just ask the Yankees or Rays. By Detroit signing him we also received their first round pick but even without that perk this was addition by subtraction. Victor might have provided us with more consistent out put behind the dish but he would’ve been our dh next season after Ortiz goes, we don’t need him clogging up that position for the next four years, that’s for sure. Dave Dombrowski GM of the Detroit Tigers, on behalf of The Nation I sincerely thank you!

John Farrell (Pitching Coach)-We knew it was only a matter of time before Farrell received a manager’s job, I don’t think many expected to lose him to an AL East team however. John decided to take his talents to Toronto where he’ll get his first crack at managing. With that young pitching staff they have the Jays are a legitimate threat in the east. It will be interesting to see how he adapts to the role of manager though and we did we replace him with Curt Young, the former pitching coach of the A’s, the team that had the best team era last season so he himself is no slouch, whether or not he can replace Farrell means to be seen.

Starting Pitching:

Lester is my early prediction for the CY Young this year, I’m projecting 215 innings another 225 strike outs and 21 victories. I feel Buchholz will regress a little, his era will jump a tad while his strike outs improve and he will give up more hits, this will be due to him pitching more in the strike zone. Lackey greatly improved last year during the second half, it’s up to him to transfer that success over. Dice K could easily be moved this season come the all star break, if one of Wakefield/Doubront/Aceves prove to be healthy and pitching effectively we will ship Daisuke off to whoever will take him, he is not in our future plans and arbitration will not be offered to the 100 million dollar bust. Last but certainly not least we have Josh Beckett, the former ace, former opening day starter. The success of our rotation relies mainly on him, if he can get back to dominating form then the east is ours! If 2010 was a precursor to his down fall, hey it’s ok, we only have him signed through 2014.

The Rebuilt Pen:

So now that we’ve analyzed a few of the major moves let’s look at some of the other additions that weren’t as high profile but just as important. Going into spring training we knew Papelbon/Jenks/Bard all had spots and roles, it was perceived Wakefield would be our long reliever and emergency starting pitcher, though some are calling for him to replace Matsuzaka, the other spots however a complete mystery. Our bullpen has been made over beyond the addition of the aforementioned Bobby Jenks we now feature Matt Albers and Denny Reyes. Who? The most controversial position battle in spring training this year has been who will the Sox pick for these middle relieft spots. Miller and Aceves were candidates but seeing as they are on minor league deals and can be sent there without penalty we all knew their chances were slim. The Sox resigned Okajima last year, a move I find to be questionable, he was looked at as a favorite to regain one of the spots, he’s familiar with how the Sox operate, has had past success, and up until last season he was a proven commodity against the Yanks (2010 was pretty much bombs away when they stepped to the plate against him). Hideki however has an option left and was sent to the minors without being exposed to waivers. The decision to keep Albers & Reyes was a mood made for depth. We will enter the season with Papelbon/Jenks/Bard/Wakefield/Reyes/Albers/Wheeler a far more dangerous group than last year, and if they can stay healthy and hold to form they could be the best bullpen in the majors, then again Papelbon and Jenks could continue to slide and if that happens we are serious trouble folks!

Position Battle to Watch:

Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie. Jed came into his own down the stretch finally living up to expectations. He was healthy, filled in at first, second, and short, while swinging a hot bat. Whether or not Jed starts in 2012 depends on if he can stay healthy again, the interesting thing is even if he is our starting short stop to end the season he may not start there the following year. Jose Iglesias is defensively ready to take over at short, a move that could push Lowrie to 3b and shifting Youk to dh. It is no secret Theo loves Lowrie at thrid comparing him to Bill Mueller.

2012 and Beyond:

Ok so we have now reviewed this season’s changes but lets look at how this year’s moves alter the future. Besides the immediate loss of talent in our minor league system with the acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford’s signing changed the future for several minor leaguers. By us acquiring another outfielder we were able to shift Mike Cameron to the position of 4th outfielder/pinch hitter, a spot that truly fits him at this point of his career. With the ever fragile JD Drew in right and the lefty heavy line up I’m sure Mike will see plenty of action. By us removing Cameron from the starting outfield position we are now able to give young outfielders like Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick more time to develop. We added more outfield depth when Jose Linares defected from Cuba and signed with us. He was the talk of spring training opening eyes all over the major leagues and was the target for many clubs, thankfully the Sox didn’t have any holes that need plugging. Since Cameron and Drew are in the last year of their contracts it is safe to assume that 2 of the 3 mentioned young outfielders will be with us next year, with one starting at right field. The fact that they can all get seasoning, full time at bats, and prepare for major league duty in 2012 is extremely important. I believe that Linares will be the starter if he can build upon this spring, he’s 26 much older than Kalish and has more professional experience playing in Cuba for several years. Reddick most likely will be out 4th outfielder, Kalish will continue to improve his skills and will most likely take over for Ellsbury in center field after the 2013 season. The fact that we have the best left fielder in baseball allows their progression to happen naturally instead of being rushed, of course another injury riddled season like last and you can kiss this game plan goodbye. Gonzalez anchoring first this season and beyond means that the power hitting Lars Anderson can finally relax, he no longer has worry about being the answer at first, he no longer has to look over his shoulder and see Anthony Rizzo breathing down his neck either. Anderson simply has to work on his hitting now as he will have an opportunity to take over dh duties for Ortiz after this season (spoiler alert Sox fans, he’s not coming back). We also acquired Saltalamacchia to take over at catcher, resigning Varitek to tutor the young catcher. Salty should prove to be an excellent backstop as long as his Rube Baker like throwing problems don’t return.

2012 Dream Scenario:

Before I give you my final prediction on our performance this year, let me just throw an idea out there. The Sox let Ortiz walk, we have Lowrie start at short, keep Youk at third, keep Iglesias in the minors, this would leave us an opening at dh if say Lars isn’t ready. Looking ahead there aren’t as many impact bats in this upcoming free agent class as there are available closers, what if we signed a guy named Pujols and had him split time between first/dh with Adrian? I forget where I read this originally but it could work. Is it unlikely? Yes. Improbable? Indeed. Worth dreaming about? Absolutely!

Bold Predictions:

I won’t say we will the WS, that’s a jinx, you get bad mojo by saying that, we will however, win the AL East totalling 101 regular season victories! The Rays will take the wild card as the Yankee’s age finally catches up to them, A-Roid/ Mr. Rescue Me/ and their .250 hitting first baseman will all severely underperform for what they are paid. Their rebuilt rotation containing Freddy Garcia/Ivan Nova/ and emergency starter Bartolo Colon will also under perform for what they are paid (this is pretty sad since they aren’t paid that much on minor league deals) and CC Sabathia & Soriano will opt out of their contracts realizing the reign of the Evil Empire is officially over. 2011 will be the Return of the Nation!

-Christopher B.

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